10/07/2025
In a dramatic U-turn, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has backed down on her budget plans, promising to keep the European Social Fund Plus (ESF+) in the next EU budget. This major concession came just days after our analysis revealed that the ESF+ was conspicuously absent from leaked Commission proposals.
As one S&D spokesperson triumphantly declared to Politico: “Yesterday the ESF+ was out of the MFF. Today it is in it, thanks to the firmness of the S&D family.”
Political Pressure Works
The Socialists’ support wasn’t just about the no-confidence vote—which von der Leyen would almost certainly have survived anyway—but about her broader political authority.
Had the Socialists abstained, it would have raised serious doubts about the Commission’s support in Parliament and ability to push through legislation. For a beleaguered Commission President already facing criticism, losing the backing of the second-largest parliamentary group would have been devastating for her political capital.
The Socialist group’s red line on social funding forced the Commission President’s hand. The Socialists linked their support directly to preserving the European Social Fund, which tackles poverty and supports vulnerable groups.
But ESF+ isn’t von der Leyen’s only major concession this week. She also promised that regional payments—a third of the EU budget—will continue going to local authorities rather than national governments, addressing concerns about autocratic leaders like Viktor Orbán cutting funding to rival regions.
The combination suggests a Commission President under significant political pressure, forced to retreat on multiple fronts.
Questions Remain
Whilst the pledge is welcome, significant questions remain unanswered:
What exactly has been promised? The commitment to include “the European Social Fund” is vague. Will this be the full ESF+ programme or a watered-down version?
How much funding? A symbolic ESF with minimal funding would technically fulfill the promise whilst gutting the programme’s effectiveness.
Internal tensions? Commissioner Roxana Mînzatu led a push inside the Commission to save the fund, suggesting the original exclusion wasn’t unanimously supported.
Manufactured Crisis?
The EPP’s budget negotiator, Siegfried Mureșan, was dismissive of Socialist victory chants, suggesting this was always going to be their main demand and that “regardless of the vote, the Parliament was always going to demand the Social Fund be included.”
If true, this was unnecessary theatre—a manufactured crisis that wasted political capital and undermined confidence in the Commission’s competence.
The Real Test
The proof will be in the formal MFF proposals on 16 July. The European Parliament, which voted overwhelmingly to maintain ESF+ as a key instrument, will be watching closely. So too will the millions of Europeans who depend on EU social programmes.